Tajikistan

Economics, Political, and Trade Overview

Source: Feb 10, 2022 Economist Intelligence Unit

Tajikistan - In Short.

Overview of Tajikistan

The Tajik people came under Russian imperial rule in the 1860s and 1870s, but Russia’s hold on Central Asia weakened following the Revolution of 1917. At that time, bands of indigenous guerrillas (known as “basmachi”) fiercely contested Bolshevik control of the area, which was not fully reestablished until 1925. Tajikistan was first created as an autonomous republic within Uzbekistan in 1924, but in 1929 the USSR designated Tajikistan a separate republic and transferred to it much of present-day Sughd province. Ethnic Uzbeks form a substantial minority in Tajikistan, and ethnic Tajiks an even larger minority in Uzbekistan. Tajikistan became independent in 1991 following the breakup of the Soviet Union, and experienced a civil war between political, regional, and religious factions from 1992 to 1997. Though the country holds general elections for both the presidency (once every seven years) and legislature (once every five years), observers note an electoral system rife with irregularities and abuse, with results that are neither free nor fair. President Emomali RAHMON, who came to power in 1992 during the civil war and was first elected president in 1994, used an attack planned by a disaffected deputy defense minister in 2015 to ban the last major opposition political party in Tajikistan. In December 2015, RAHMON further strengthened his position by having himself declared “Founder of Peace and National Unity, Leader of the Nation,” with limitless terms and lifelong immunity through constitutional amendments ratified in a referendum. The referendum also lowered the minimum age required to run for president from 35 to 30, which made RAHMON’s first-born son Rustam EMOMALI, the mayor of the capital city of Dushanbe, eligible to run for president in 2020. In April 2020, RAHMON orchestrated EMOMALI’s selection as Chairman of the Majlisi Milli (Tajikistan’s senate), positioning EMOMALI as next in line of succession for the presidency. RAHMON opted to run in the presidential election in October 2020 and received 91% of the vote.The country remains the poorest in the former Soviet sphere. Tajikistan became a member of the WTO in March 2013. However, its economy continues to face major challenges, including dependence on remittances from Tajikistani migrant laborers working in Russia and Kazakhstan, pervasive corruption, and the opiate trade and other destabilizing violence emanating from neighboring Afghanistan. Tajikistan has endured several domestic security incidents since 2010, including armed conflict between government forces and local strongmen in the Rasht Valley and between government forces and criminal groups in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast. Tajikistan suffered its first ISIS-claimed attack in 2018, when assailants attacked a group of Western bicyclists with vehicles and knives, killing four.
Value
Country Full Name
Tajikistan
Country Code
TJK
Region
Europe & Central Asia
Income Group
Lower middle income
Currency Unit
GDP
8194150302
Population
9537642
Land Area
138790
Net National Income Per Capita
847.6648175
GDP per Capita (PPP)
3858.197391

2020 GDP Growth Rate (Current USD)

2020 GDP Per Capita (Current USD)

2020 Urbanization Rate (%)

2020 Total Fertility Rate (Birth Per Woman)

Doing Business Score (100= Most Friendly)

Tajikistan - Economic

Economy of Tajikistan

Tajikistan is a poor, mountainous country with an economy dominated by minerals extraction, metals processing, agriculture, and reliance on remittances from citizens working abroad. Mineral resources include silver, gold, uranium, antimony, tungsten, and coal. Industry consists mainly of small obsolete factories in food processing and light industry, substantial hydropower facilities, and a large aluminum plant – currently operating well below its capacity. The 1992-97 civil war severely damaged an already weak economic infrastructure and caused a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production. Today, Tajikistan is the poorest among the former Soviet republics. Because less than 7% of the land area is arable and cotton is the predominant crop, Tajikistan imports approximately 70% of its food.Since the end of the civil war, the country has pursued half-hearted reforms and privatizations in the economic sphere, but its poor business climate remains a hindrance to attracting foreign investment. Some experts estimate the value of narcotics transiting Tajikistan is equivalent to 30%-50% of GDP.Because of a lack of employment opportunities in Tajikistan, more than one million Tajik citizens work abroad – roughly 90% in Russia – supporting families back home through remittances that in 2017 were equivalent to nearly 35% of GDP. Tajikistan’s large remittances from migrant workers in Russia exposes it to monetary shocks. Tajikistan often delays devaluation of its currency for fear of inflationary pressures on food and other consumables. Recent slowdowns in the Russian and Chinese economies, low commodity prices, and currency fluctuations have hampered economic growth. The dollar value of remittances from Russia to Tajikistan dropped by almost 65% in 2015, and the government spent almost $500 million in 2016 to bail out the country’s still troubled banking sector.Tajikistan’s growing public debt – currently about 50% of GDP – could result in financial difficulties. Remittances from Russia increased in 2017, however, bolstering the economy somewhat. China owns about 50% of Tajikistan’s outstanding debt. Tajikistan has borrowed heavily to finance investment in the country’s vast hydropower potential. In 2016, Tajikistan contracted with the Italian firm Salini Impregilo to build the Roghun dam over a 13-year period for $3.9 billion. A 2017 Eurobond has largely funded Roghun’s first phase, after which sales from Roghun’s output are expected to fund the rest of its construction. The government has not ruled out issuing another Eurobond to generate auxiliary funding for its second phase.

Unemployment Rate

Inflation Rate

Tajikistan - GDP Composition

GDP Composiiton & Value Added of Tajikistan

Last Updated: Jan, 2021, Updated For 2020.

Tajikistan - GDP, Value Added

Demographics of Tajikistan

the country’s population is concentrated at lower elevations, with perhaps as much as 90% of the people living in valleys; overall density increases from east to west
Geographic Location

Central Asia, west of China, south of Kyrgyzstan

Races

Tajik 84.3% (includes Pamiri and Yagnobi), Uzbek 13.8%, other 2% (includes Kyrgyz, Russian, Turkmen, Tatar, Arab) (2014 est.)

Languages

Tajik (official) 84.4%, Uzbek 11.9%, Kyrgyz 0.8%, Russian 0.5%, other 2.4% (2010 est.)major-language

Religion

Muslim 98% (Sunni 95%, Shia 3%) other 2% (2014 est.)

Dependency & Expectancy of Tajikistan

Last Updated: Jan, 2021

Dependency Ratio

Expectancy

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Tajikistan - Social Media Briefing

Tajikistan - Social Media & Social Commerce

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Politics & Policies of Tajikistan

2021 Policies Overview

Updated Coming in March 2021 after our team finish summarizing countries policy.

International Organizations

ADB, CICA, CIS, CSTO, EAEC, EAPC, EBRD, ECO, EITI (candidate country), FAO, G-77, GCTU, IAEA, IBRD, ICAO, ICC (NGOs), ICCt, ICRM, IDA, IDB, IFAD, IFC, IFRCS, ILO, IMF, Interpol, IOC, IOM, IPU, ISO (correspondent), ITSO, ITU, MIGA, NAM (observer), OIC, OPCW, OSCE, PFP, SCO, UN, UNCTAD, UNESCO, UNIDO, UNWTO, UPU, WCO, WFTU (NGOs), WHO, WIPO, WMO, WTO

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Export of Tajikistan

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