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The Economy of France in 2023 - Industry & Market Trends

Last Updated: October 30, 2023
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Population

67.249 million

GDP

2.78 trillion

GDP Growth Rate

2.5 %

GDP Per Capita

42350 USD

Land Size

547557 km²

TFR

1.9 Child

Unemployment Rate

7.3 %

Inflation Rate

5.9 %

What is The Overall Outlook in France ?

France is the sixth-largest economy in the world, and its territories (including colonies) span across Western Europe, the Americas, the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean. This geographical dispersion of land also allows France to have an exclusive economic zone that is roughly the same size as the United States.

Furthermore, France is located in one of the most advantageous positions in Europe, with five major rivers that provide balanced distribution of resources. This, combined with favorable soil quality, makes agriculture a thriving industry in France despite its highly industrialized state.

France operates under a semi-presidential system with two leaders. The first is the President of the Republic, who is directly elected by the public and serves a five-year term. The current President is Emmanuel Macron. The second is the Prime Minister, who is appointed by the President and serves as the head of government. The current Prime Minister is Élisabeth Borne.

However, the strong presence of trade unions in France has resulted in a relatively underdeveloped business and market system compared to many advanced economies. President Macron successfully pushed for labor and tax reforms in 2017-2018 despite opposition from the public and unions, making it easier for companies to hire and lay off employees. However, with the parliamentary elections held in mid-2022, President Macron’s party lost the majority, making future legislative progress more challenging.

Under the current impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War, energy and food costs have risen significantly. The French government has implemented policies to address this, including limiting energy price increases to 15% in 2023, which is expected to cost the government up to 16 billion euros. The government has also increased financial support for industries such as businesses and farmers since 2021. Additionally, since the beginning of the pandemic, France has launched a 100 billion euro stimulus program to encourage energy, high-tech, and manufacturing companies to return and develop in the country.

France - Real GDP Growth
Note: Real GDP Growth (%) | Forecast After 2023 (IMF)
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Economic Structure

The latest GDP update was in October 2023, updating the data on the contribution of GDP output in various sectors for the year 2022, as a proportion of the total GDP. The data is sourced from the World Bank, IMF, and local government statistics. Predictions on the sources of GDP contribution are from the EIU.

Private Consumption
53.4%
Gov Expenditure
24%
Capital Formation
25.2%
Export
34.7%
Import
38.5%
Economic Growth(By Type)
Note: Real GDP Growth (%) | Forecast After 2023 (EIU)

Overall Economic Outlook in France?

The French economy showed a quick recovery from the pandemic recession but lost steam in 2022 despite the government’s efforts to mitigate the effects of rising energy prices. Indicators suggest that the economy is not on the brink of a recession, in part due to positive developments in the energy sector. The job market remains tight, with fewer job seekers and continued job creation, albeit at a slower pace. Consumer confidence rebounded in the latter part of 2022, and supply chain issues have improved, with delivery delays now at their lowest in two years and companies working through backlogs of orders. However, business sentiment is negative and with weakening activity in the services sector due to declining consumer purchasing power, this trend is expected to persist.

The economy is expected to grow by less than 0.4-0.7% in 2023. Economic growth will be hindered by high inflation, affecting consumers’ purchasing power; tightening monetary policy with rising interest rates in the euro zone; and a subdued global environment with slowing growth in the US and globally. The winter of 2023/24 presents additional risks for energy supplies, as Europe will need to replenish its depleted gas storage without the usual inflow from Russia, and with new LNG terminals coming online gradually. Semiconductors will continue to be in short supply in 2023, and although food and energy prices will start to stabilize, they will remain exceptionally high due to increased global demand for LNG following the easing of zero-covid protocols in China. Elevated inflation will continue to impact private consumption, and higher interest rates will dampen investment spending and put pressure on low-margin companies. France will also feel the effects of slower growth in the US in the context of monetary policy tightening.

Population

67.249 million

Land Size

547557 km²

GDP

2.78 trillion

GDP Per Capita

42350 USD

Unemployment

7.3 %

Inflation

5.9 %

Urbanization

80.7 %

TFR

1.9 Child

GDP Per Capita
Note: Real Growth (%) | Forecast After 2023 (IMF)
GDP Per Capita (PPP)
Note: Real Growth (%) | Forecast After 2023 (IMF)
Unemployment Rate
Note: %
Inflation Rate
Note: %

Other Economies

Industry Structure

The latest GDP update was in October 2023, updating the data on the contribution of GDP output in various sectors for the year 2022, as a proportion of the total GDP. The data is sourced from the World Bank, IMF, and local government statistics. Predictions on the sources of GDP contribution are from the EIU.

Agriculture
1.5%
Industry
17.9%
Manufacturing
10.7%
Service
80.6%
Economic Growth(By Sector)
Note: Real GDP Growth (%) | Forecast After 2023 (EIU)

Demographics Overview

Population +

132 k people

Birth

673 k people

Death

607 k people

Net Migration

67 k people

France - Population Growth Drivers
Note: % | forecast after 2023
France - Age Structure - Historical & Forecast
Note: % | forecast after 2023

Natural Growth

1 ‰

Net Migration

1 ‰

Young Dependency

28.5 %

Old Dependency

34.3 %

France - Median Age
Note: Age
France - Demographic Structure
Source: UN Population; OOSGA Analytics

Political Overveiw

The political foundations of France can be traced back to the French Revolution of 1789. The country was a founding member of the European Union (EU) and has been a leading player in European integration. However, over the years, French voters have become increasingly skeptical about the EU, but this skepticism appears to be declining due to the difficulties faced by the UK in leaving the bloc. The French economy is in competition with that of the UK to become the second largest in western Europe and is about three-quarters the size of the German economy.

The constitution of the Fifth Republic was established in 1959. The president is elected through universal suffrage for a five-year term. The parliament is divided into two chambers: the Senate (upper house) and the National Assembly (lower house). The Senate members are elected by an electoral college and serve for six years, with half retiring every three years, while the National Assembly members are elected through universal suffrage and serve a five-year term, although it can be dissolved by the president. After the outcome of the June 2022 legislative elections, in which the president Emmanuel Macron lost his parliamentary majority, he reshuffled his cabinet.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has prompted several policy changes in Europe. One major change is the increased military spending across the EU, with Germany committing €100 billion to defense. Despite these efforts, Europe remains heavily dependent on security guarantees from the US, even with a concerted effort to reach the NATO 2% of GDP spending target.

Energy security has become another priority for the EU, following Russia’s cut-off of natural gas supplies, which left the region short on energy. Efforts to find alternative sources of oil and gas, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), have been accelerated, and new infrastructure is being built at a fast pace. Companies are also substituting away from gas wherever possible. The permit process for renewables has been streamlined, although in the short term, the green agenda will see a setback in Europe as coal-fired power is extended. However, in the medium term, the shift to low-emission power sources will be accelerated, with France planning to increase investment in the nuclear sector, which accounts for 70% of domestic electricity production.

President Emmanuel Macron made significant progress in his first term on labor market and tax reform, and measures to make the business environment more competitive. This has supported domestic business and improved global perceptions of France as an investment location. However, without a majority in parliament in his second term, policymaking will slow down. The government is implementing a €30 billion investment plan to boost local industry and green initiatives, and a €100 billion medium-term recovery and stimulus plan, partly financed by EU funds, to ensure continued investment. Efforts to reduce public debt and slim down the public sector have not yet made progress due to generous pandemic spending and efforts to tackle rising energy prices. The proposed pension system reform, which would aid fiscal sustainability, was announced again in early 2023 and will be discussed by parliament in May. The initial reform bill has been amended to secure the parliamentary support of LR, and changes include increasing the current retirement age to 64, allowing people to retire after 43 years of contributions, and allowances for debilitating professions and parental leave.

France - Government Spending (% of GDP)
Note: (%)|2023後為預測(IMF)

Current Account Balance

-56.77 Billion

Current Account Balance (% of GDP)

-2 %

Gov Net Landing/Borrowing(% of GDP)

-4.8 %

Gov Gross Debt(% of GDP)

111.8 %

France - Current Account Balance
note: (% of GDP) | Forecast After 2023
France - Gross Debt
note: (% of GDP) | Forecast After 2023

Consumer Brief

We have consolidated data on France’s e-commerce, social media, and insights relate to how customers in France make decisions and spend.

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Reference
  • Economic Data:OECD, World Bank, IMF、Government Statistics Bureau
  • Currency Exchange:Based on IMF data in 2023/1
  • GDP Growth Projection:OECD、IMF, OECD, EIU、Government Bureau
  • Demographics:UN Population Database
  • Race, Culture, and Languages:CIA Factbook
  • Unemployment Rate Projection:ILO, UNECE
  • Trade:UN Comtrade, UNCTD
  • ICT Infrastructure:ITU
  • Data Calculation & Regression:OOSGA.org
  • Analysis:OOSGA Analytics
  •  
Author: Economic Team, CR Team

We track the latest economic developments from spending, retail, real estate to demographics in major economics around the world.

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